Wednesday, April 2
Tuesday, April 1
Monday, March 31
Friday, March 28
Thursday, March 27
Wednesday, March 26
Tuesday, March 25
Thursday, March 20
Wednesday, March 19
Tuesday, March 18
Monday, March 17
Wednesday, March 12
Tuesday, March 11
Monday, March 10
Friday, March 7
Wednesday, March 5
Friday, February 29
Thursday, February 28
Wednesday, February 27
Tuesday, February 26
Monday, February 25
Friday, February 22
Thursday, February 21
Wednesday, February 20
Tuesday, February 19
Monday, February 18
Friday, February 15
Thursday, February 14
Wednesday, February 13
Tuesday, February 12
Monday, February 11
Friday, February 8
Thursday, February 7
Wednesday, February 6
Tuesday, February 5
Monday, February 4
Friday, February 1
Thursday, January 31
Wednesday, January 30
Tuesday, January 29
Monday, January 28
Friday, January 25
Thursday, January 24
Wednesday, January 23
Tuesday, January 22
Monday, January 21
Friday, January 18
Thursday, January 17
Wednesday, January 16
Tuesday, January 15
Monday, January 14
Friday, January 11
Thursday, January 10
Nifty Support Level at 6050
We expect Nifty support level at 6210 points. Market is expected to revert from here but if it breaches this level, next support level is expected at 6050.
Wednesday, January 9
Tuesday, January 8
Monday, January 7
Friday, January 4
Thursday, January 3
Wednesday, January 2
Tuesday, January 1
Monday, December 31
Friday, December 28
Thursday, December 27
Wednesday, December 26
Monday, December 24
Thursday, December 20
Wednesday, December 19
Tuesday, December 18
Nifty Support Level at 5730
We expect Nifty support level at 5730 points. Market is expected to revert from here & not to breach this level.
Strong Dollar & Value buy after the 3.8% fall on Monday may move the market upside.
Monday, December 17
Friday, December 14
Thursday, December 13
Wednesday, December 12
Tuesday, December 11
Monday, December 10
Friday, December 7
Thursday, December 6
Wednesday, December 5
Tuesday, December 4
Monday, December 3
Friday, November 30
Thursday, November 29
Wednesday, November 28
Tuesday, November 27
Monday, November 26
Friday, November 23
Thursday, November 22
Wednesday, November 21
Tuesday, November 20
Market expected to correct by 1000pts this week
Ironical indicators pave way for correction of 800-1000 points
An ironical relationship is being witnessed in past couple of months between exchange rate and Indian market. India, typically being an export oriented economy loses its fundamental sheen on depreciation of dollar against rupee. However on the contrary foreign funds see an additional incentive in form of currency gain by investing in India and this increased interest helps market buoyancy. In effect weakening fundamentals and rising stock markets indicate an ironical picture.
Since such mismatch is difficult to continue as a long term trend in any economic market place, the adjustment has started being witnessed over last week and effect is largely visible from Monday’s market as well. We expect a further 4-5 % correction in the market i.e. 800-1000 point correction on the Sensex, depicting the broader stock market, till the market support levels come in play and value buying start playing its role.
During this calendar year, US dollar has depreciated about 10% against rupee and we have seen huge FII inflows in our markets. In addition to the growth story sold by Indian markets, this dollar depreciation has also helped in bringing foreign funds in the country. Since, handsome currency gain is a strong additional incentive for the foreign investors over and above the market growth, an increased interest amongst the foreign investors in the Indian markets seems obvious. Increased quantum of foreign flows leads to a further depreciation of US dollar against Indian rupee and vice-versa creating a vicious circle.
There have been large talks about the quantum of foreign funds finding there way in Indian stock markets and consequent depreciation of US dollar against rupee. However, investors are seeking strong fundamental story of Indian economy which is being adversely affected by depreciating dollar. India remains largely an export oriented country, as many sectors (including index heavy weights as well) largely depend on international markets, where US dollar being largely used as the trading currency.
Dollar depreciation has distorted there fundamentals especially in a competing global place. IT/ITES, textiles, auto and ancillary, engineering are the worst effected sectors. Apart from having large market capitalization, these sectors are also among the largest employers in the country. Thus, weakening business models of these sectors also have a large influence on domestic consumption and larger economy as well.
It is also to be recognized that there are other sectors which also contribute in a major way to the market capitalization, being oil & gas, telecom, banking, infrastructure being the dominant ones. However, one needs to appreciate that in the current rally these counters have witnessed huge surge stretching their valuations and normal correction seems to be inevitable.
In our view, we have reached a situation where dollar effect on export oriented industries has started unearthening and US dollar has stabilized in a range, markets are set to correct by about 4-5 % until the value investors comes in play. The signals are strong and clear - last week, US dollar oscillated between a range of 39.28-39.39 and net FII outflow of 1880 crores. We believe that Monday movements is start of at least a week long correction stretching to 800-1000 points on Sensex. Technically major supports available to Sensex are 19,000 and 17,500.
